#127 - Roadmap to Making Good Venture Bets in Bear Markets + $MSFT Buying $ATVI, the New YC SAFE Agreement, and 🇨🇦 Company Building Stripe for Defi
In this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Broc and Joel discuss the butterfly effect of interest rate hikes, volcano eruptions and great leadership at the CEO level.
Listen on Apple, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.
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👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.
When you’re looking for leading indicators in markets, you first need to pay attention to the bond market…
The bond market is where things really matter.
The world's largest institutions can't touch your small-cap stocks. Crypto isn’t big or liquid enough to garner attention from big allocators like sovereign wealth funds.
The biggest Hedge Funds, Banks and Pensions have to live in the world's largest and most liquid marketplaces.
From there it all trickles down to the stocks and ETFs that you're quite familiar with.
But it starts in the bond market.
That's why when there's real systemic risk out there, you see it in bonds. Sometimes it's coincident, but most of the time it's leading.
You saw credit spreads widening for months before the S&P500 peaked before Covid in January and February 2020.
You also saw it before the Spring 2015 peak.
And before that you saw in 2007 before the GFC.
We're just not seeing it today: chart from All Star Charts
So if the end of the market run isn’t nigh, we should be positioning ourselves as such.
Right now we’ve got major software and cloud players down thirty to forty percent over the last six to nine months.
But in the long run we are going to see a massive tailwind of revenue and cash flow and profits from these companies.
And prices now don’t seem correlated with earnings, nobody’s missed big on earnings; this seems to be a re-rating of sector based multiples, which could happen with interest rates, geopolitical conditions, and possibly healthcare. It’s a good time to go nibbling on names that you love.
Take a look at a few of the fallen IPOs for ideas as well.
Tweet Thread of the Week
💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The Week
How to Get a Job In Tech
I get a lot of people reaching out for career advice. No clue why…
But oddly enough, I was sent what might be the best read for anyone looking to make a jump into tech. Whether you’re a recent highschool grad, just finishing university or looking to change careers. This is a fantastic all inclusive.
I really enjoyed it and hope you do too.
Alberta Opens Path for Tech Talent Immigration
The new stream is part of a push from the provincial government to grow Alberta’s tech ecosystem. The government reports that Alberta is home to more than 3,000 technology companies, a 233 percent increase since 2012. But, after realizing the value of the tech sector locally, the province has been looking to increase that number in recent years through programs that bring in international accelerators and by creating the refundable tax credit for research and development.
Why this matters?
Immigration problems: The single biggest challenge America and Canada faces today is entirely self-imposed. Unless they radically increase immigration — particularly skilled immigration — they will lose their position of global leadership
Y Combinator: SAFE vs. Convertible Note: What’s the difference?
🌊 Canadian Companies To Peruse 🌊
Conduit.Finanical - We enable fintechs, neobanks, and exchanges to connect their customers with high earning crypto-backed products using one API for DeFi.
Clutch - Clutch wants to be Canada’s largest online used car buying platform.
🔮Best Links of The Week🔮
The inside story of Facebook Marketplace - from Lenny Rachitsky
Noah Smith interview of Ryan Peterson - Ceo and founder of Flexport
Three Things I Think I Think – Has Inflation Peaked - from Cullen Roche
Wordle - where you guess a five-letter word in six tries, and then laugh and cry with others as you share your results and the grid charting your attempts