#146 - Apple Developer Day, Saudi Arabia's Plan To Own Sports and Canadian GAS Inflation
In this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, Joel and Cam talk Apple’s developer day, Canadian Tax Tricks, and how the Saudis plan to take over Sports.
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👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.
When you take a position, you are going one way or the other against consensus.
So here is where consensus/market pricing is:
10%+ earnings growth & real GDP growth above trend in ‘22-23
US real yields around 0% to be “tight” enough to bring inflation quickly down to 2.5%
And for the longer term:
Inflation expectations pretty well anchored around 2.25%
Fed Funds and ECB terminal rates at 3% and 1.75%
3-5y Crude Oil contracts at $70 or so
This is always good to bear in mind when taking a position.
A stronger US Dollar and higher interest rates are not a good thing for the average stock.
To us, it continues to be about that.
Investors NEED a weaker Dollar if they plan on making money this summer being long growth stocks or crypto. This is not a "want", this is an absolute need.
So this is it. Dollars and Rates.
One thing that has stood out was the cyclical nature of Semiconductors continuing to show itself. Look at the relative strength compared to the more growthy Software sector.
💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The Week
But the most important release was their car play OS.
“Next-generation Apple CarPlay will be a whole car OS, taking over every screen and even controlling gauges and climate-control functions. The first cars to use the new CarPlay will be announced in late 2023, with nearly a dozen automakers already on board.”
If Apple succeeds in this endeavour, it will eat the entire value chain in automotive.
OEMs would be reduced to commodity assemblers like Compaq and Dell were to Microsoft in the PC era.
It’s kind of a brilliant move.
The question is, who will be dumb enough to let them do it? Seems like they have a good chance at winning a lot of OEMs over. CarPlay 1 was the trojan horse.
This has been a long time coming
ELON and His War On Work From Home:
🐦 Twitter Thread of The Week 🐦
US Regulation Comes For Crypto:
🎬 Video of The Week🎬
Mr. Beast Consistently Showing How to Scale Content
🔮Best Links of The Week🔮
Marques Brownlee - WWDC 2022 Impressions: M2 Macs and iOS 16?!
Housing Wire Daily (Spotify) - Reverse Mortgages are hot hot hot
Ezra Klein @ New York Times - Dont Let Climate Change Stop You From Having Kids
RBC Thought Leadership - Canadas Housing Markets Rebalancing Fast
Rate hikes risk sending housing into tailspin: Capital Economics @ BNN