#15 - Making Better (Sports) Bets

  
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In today’s episode, we dive into the rapidly growing industry of sports gambling. While wagering on the outcomes of sporting events is one of the oldest human pastimes, only recently have we developed the statistical model wherewithal to conquer ourselves and this space.

Broc and Joel make an attempt to convince listeners to better understand how gambling works, who’s on the other side of your bets and whether or not its a fair competition.

Come for the sports betting education but stay to better understand your own biases as a gambler and investor. This conversation is for everyone who wants to better understand themselves and make better decisions in the process.

Luck Is What Happens When Preparation Meets Opportunity"  - Seneca


[3:00] - Sports gambling is an inefficient market (Example of investing in baseball players pre MLB - https://jambospicks.com/)

[8:00] - Are unique datasets the primary differentiator?

[14:00] - How do the odds work?

[18:00] - How do both sides make money in sports gambling?

[26:00] - Identifying inefficient markets.

[36:00] - Why are feedback loops important?

[43:30] - How to untangle skill and luck?

[51:00] - Identifying your blindspots.



Other mentions:

📚 Annie Duke - Thinking in Bets

📚 Ajay Agrawal - Prediction Machines

📚 Philip Tetlok - Superforecasters



DISCLAIMER

Joel Shackleton works for Gold Investment Management. All opinions expressed by Joel and Broc or any podcast guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Gold Investment Management. This Podcast and Substack is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Clients of Gold Investment Management may hold positions discussed in this podcast.