Sep 14, 2022 • 58M

#160 -Pardon The Inflation, NDP and Liberals Giving Away More Money and Apple Lowers Their Phone Prices

Open in playerListen on);
The Reformed Millennials Podcast covers a wide ranging topic arc focusing on Sports and Investing. RM Pod is dedicated to identifying the latest trends in technology, sport and investing. We discuss the ways Millennials can leverage these trends to better invest their time, fandom and money.
Episode details
Listen in podcast app

- My take on August CPI

- NDP and Liberals giving Canadians MORE money!

- Apples new product line and what it means

- The Queen and what she meant to two white English guys

- The Emmys and HBO’s Dominance

- The next act in the streaming wars and the Emmys

- Housing Slowdown Is Here

Listen on AppleSpotify, or Google Podcasts.

If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.

👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.

📈📊Market Update💵📉


The market has rallied on:

  1. Peak inflation

  2. Ukraine

  3. Resilient U.S. consumer according to MasterCard SpendingPulse

But interest rates continue to trend higher at the same time (usually move in the opposite direction)

PI year-over-year

  • June 9.1% highest since 1981 (40+ year high)

  • July 8.5%

  • August 8.3% inflation dropped less than expected (8.1% expected)

Core CPI

  • up 6.3% versus 5.9% in July

10yr 3.4% moved from 3.3% to 3.4% after today’s inflation data

Federal Reserve meeting

  • next week (Sept. 21)

  • 75-basis point increase in the bag

  • Federal Funds Target Rate Range 2.25% to 2.5%

  • The New Expected Range is 3.0% to 3.25%

My thoughts:

People are so frustrated over 20 months of bleeding and to an extent, I get it.

But for the young people who are complaining about never having an opportunity to buy stocks, houses, and other assets when times are hard and bad, well you're going to get that opportunity in the next 18 months.

Housing is becoming more affordable than it was in 2020 and 2021, stocks haven't been this cheap on an EPS basis for over a decade...



Patience is a virtue.

Until money starts to flee the US Dollar, stocks and crypto are going to have a hard time getting going.

I thought it was interesting what Jeff Gundlach said today at the FutureProof conference:

“I’m not going to buy emerging markets until the dollar breaks its 200 day moving average. I like India and I like Asia in general. I also like Brazil and Chile”

💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The Week

Canadian Housing Correction:

I think this comes down to a Variable rate mortgage story. In the short term, this housing repricing is EXACTLY what the doctor ordered.

However, this is almost certainly a short-term story for the Canadian economy when you think 18-36 months out.

The goal of the Bank of Canada and central banks across the board is to find "price stability"

This is a pendulum-swing process.

On the right, we have too hot with cheap money. - Think 2020-2021

On the left, we have too cold with rapidly rising interest rates that threaten to send the Canadian and global economy into a recession. - 2022 - 202?

We need this to get ourselves back to 2019 when we had a manageable inflation number where nobody outside of economists even thought about it.

That will take time.

What will the "202?" be?

I think that's Q1-Q3 2023.

From the attached BNN article:

In Australia and Canada — two of the world’s bubbliest markets — economists anticipate a notable crunch.

While requirements that most Canadian borrowers be stress tested before they get a mortgage make widespread defaults unlikely, a round of belt-tightening that could be felt economy-wide looks increasingly certain. Variable-rate mortgages accounted for nearly 60 percent of all new home loans at the height of the country’s real estate frenzy earlier this year.

Of the roughly half a trillion Canadian dollars’ worth of variable mortgage debt outstanding, about a third have seen their monthly payments go up in line with the central bank’s benchmark rate, according to research from the National Bank of Canada. Combined with things like lines of 40 and fixed-rate mortgages coming up for renewal, these rising interest payments could collectively shave 0.65 percent off Canadians’ collective disposable income over the next three years, the research shows.

“We are at risk of seeing a material slowdown in spending activity,” said Robert Kavcic, an economist at the Bank of Montreal. “We’re not technically forecasting a recession, but we’re very close.”

🐦 Twitter Thread of The Week 🐦

🔮Best Links of The Week🔮