Sep 21, 2022 • 1HR 5M

#161 - Canadian Inflation Number Falls, NFL is Still King and How Adobe Owns The Creator Economy

Open in playerListen on);
The Reformed Millennials Podcast covers a wide ranging topic arc focusing on Sports and Investing. RM Pod is dedicated to identifying the latest trends in technology, sport and investing. We discuss the ways Millennials can leverage these trends to better invest their time, fandom and money.
Episode details
Listen in podcast app

- Where are rates going?

- Patagonia Founder hides all his money

- Joe Pompliano On NFL TV Ratings

- Notes from the Figma/Adobe acquisition

- New Chelsea owner on how to build a Human Capital Business

- Recommendations

Listen on AppleSpotify, or Google Podcasts.

If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.

👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.

📈📊Market Update💵📉

The main indexes have made three consecutive lower highs and lower lows since mid-August.The number of distribution days is growing. It seems they are headed for a test of their summer lows.

Some mega-cap stocks like META, GOOGL, and NVDA already made new year-to-date lows and those are the ones that are the most sensitive to the economic cycle.The year-over-year Inflation keeps coming above 8%, which probably won’t change in the next two months.This would give the Fed all the excuses they need to keep raising interest rates.

As the Fed keeps fixating on inflation, the market is starting to worry about a potential recession in 2023 due to Fed’s action. New credit creation is shrinking quickly as interest rates are rising.

Companies that are economic bellwethers keep lowering their earnings guidance by a shocking size. The most recent examples are FedEx (FDX) and Nucor Corporation (NUE).While the indexes and most stocks are in a clear downtrend, there are some groups that are showing notable relative strength.

Anything related to alternative energy is holding relatively well – EVs (TSLA, RIVN), solar (ENPH, FSLR, SPWR, NOVA, etc.), lithium (LTHM, ALB, etc.), others (BE, PLUG, STEM, etc.). Ironically, the only group that is holding well is the one that is expecting hefty government subsidies.


Chart from JC at AllStar Charts

May be an image of standing and text that says 'Dow Jones Industrial Avg 42,448.617 423.6% May2021 42000.00 41000.00 40000.00 .00 Feb 2020 Jan 2018 34,532.664 261.8% -38000.00 -37000.00 36000.00 35000.00 34000.00 32000.00 -31000.00 29,640.232 161.8% June 2022 Oct Oct2022 -29000.00 28000.00 Start: 26,616.710 Dec 2018 26000.00 Oct Jan 2017 Apr Jul 25000.00 Oct Jan Apr 2019 24000.00 Oct Jan 23000.0 Apr Jul End: 21,724.279 Oct Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr 21000.00 Oct Apr Jul -20000.00 Oct Jan 2024'

Prices are both below overhead supply and above support from the summer lows.

From any sort of intermediate-term perspective, this is what's called.

"No Man's Land"

If there's one chart that tells a good story about what's going on, it's probably this one.

Remember, the new lows list peaked in mid-June, that was over 3 months ago.

Some of the worst areas hit by this bull market, things like Biotech and ARKK, bottomed in May!

So, before stocks can go up, they need to stop going down.

Have they stopped going down? Or did they just stop going down, for now?

Time will tell.

Market Update and Charts:

June S&P500 2022 lows - 3666

Today S&P500 - 3873

  • Today we are 5% above the June lows

CNBC this morning

  • Thomas Petterfy, CIO Interactive Brokers

  • “cash balances are at all-time highs”

Central Bank meetings this week:

  • U.S., Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, U.K.

  • Jay Powell very likely to go 75 basis points

Fed Rate upper bound rate

  • 2.5% + 0.75 this week + 0.50 in November + 0.50 in December = 4.25% by year-end

Crude - 82 (-3%)

  • OPEC heavyweight UAE (United Arab Emirates) is speeding up plans to boost oil production

  • The goal is to produce 5 million barrels a day by 2025 vs. 2030 previous plans

  • UAE produced 3.4 million barrels a day in August

Germany’s Chancellor Scholz:

  • to travel to UAE and Saudi Arabia this week

  • expected to sign contracts to secure natural gas supplies from the Middle East

10yr - 3.5%

Global Instability and The Opportunity It Presents:

💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The Week

Fridays Random Thoughts:

Over $3 Trillion in options are set to expire today.

This is called Quad Witching, when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire on the same day.

It usually increases volume and volatility.

Whatever happens today should be taken with a grain of salt.

Remember, today has nothing to do with corporate fundamentals or the economy. There are major driving forces pushing everything around.

The real stuff starts next week, in my experience.

The market is expecting a 75 bps hike next week with some (20% according to CME) calling for the Fed to drop the hammer (100 bps).

The Fed has a needle to thread: too little and inflation persists, too much and the economy enters a recession.

On Tuesday, the S&P had its worst day since June 2020 and its 9th worst day in the past decade.

Over in the Nasdaq 100, every single stock closed red for the first time since March 2020.

“Hold my beer.”

May be an image of text that says 'Ark funds purchase largest number of stocks since February Number of buys across Ark ETFs 40 30 20 Dec 2021 Ark Investment Management, Bloomberg Intelligence 2,500 2,000 1,500 4600 1,000 S 2bn 4400 YTD Average 500 4200 0 Feb-22 4000 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 3800 Jun-22 Source: VandaTrack Jul-22 Retai daily net inflows into US equities (USS mn, lhs) Aug-22 3600 Sep-22 S&P 500'

-Cathie Wood & the retail army, probably

Cathie Wood’s Ark went on its biggest shopping spree (top chart) since February—buying shares in 27 stocks across 8 of its funds—citing deflation “in the pipeline”.

The retail army shared Wood’s BTFD mindset as investors bought over $2 billion (bottom chart) worth of the dip, including the biggest one-day buying of S&P 500 ETF SPY since July 2021.

Professional investors, on the other hand, yanked nearly $6 billion out of SPY which was the largest single-day decrease in 5 months.

🐦 Twitter Thread of The Week 🐦

🎙Podcast Recommendations Of The Week🎙

🔮Best Links of The Week🔮

  • UN: 345 million at risk of starvation as Ukraine war worsens crisis - Axios

  • The Critical Moment Behind Ukraine’s Rapid Advance - NYT

  • Attentive - No Mercy No Malice

  • RBC Canadian Inflation Watch - RBC