#66 - Covid-19 Vaccine, Supreme Sells to Vans/North Face and Understanding Probability
|Nov 10, 2020||3|
In this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, we're talking about what the vaccine means to stocks and investor sentiment. We also chat a bit about how to better understand probability and the polling system and the Supreme sale to Vans/North Face.
If you’re at all interested in some market clarity around stock rotation out of tech and into value, I highly recommend you tune in for the first half of this one.
If you aren’t in the Reformed Millennials Facebook Group join us for daily updates, discussions, and deep dives into the investable trends Millennials should be paying attention to.
👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.
🦠Did Pfizer Find a Cure?🦠
Pfizer and BioNTech announced its COVID vaccine candidate is 90% effective.
Pzifer is seeking an emergency distribution license ASAP. Vaccine trials will still continue through December, though.
The pharmaceutical company has already begun manufacturing the vaccine and expects to provide 1.3B doses globally in 2021.
Here’s Reuters with more.
Notable physician and investor Michael Burry shared this:
Pfizer's COVID vaccine is 90% effective, perhaps. Let's put that in perspective. Not only would it achieve "herd immunity" as defined by the pessimists, but it is far better than our annual flu vaccine. I'd take it in a second.
$PFE popped 8%
From the CNN Article:
The Pfizer vaccine uses a never-before-approved technology called messenger RNA, or mRNA, to produce an immune response in people who are vaccinated.
"What we know right now -- it is with a very, very high level of confidence these are very highly effective vaccines. What we know so far, it means that we don't have any safety concerns, but we need to wait until the results are there," Bourla said.
"Who will get this vaccine? We have two separate manufacturing lines. One is in the US," Bourla said. "Those we prefer using mainly for Americans."
Bourla added that the second line in Europe will be used to produce vaccines for the rest of the world. "We have already signed contracts with multiple governments in the world and they have placed orders," Bourla said.
The vaccine will be free to all American citizens.
🐣Alberta Oil and the Supply/Demand Problem🐥
Trump's pro-fracking position is and always has been BAD for Alberta Oil.
But Canada has already started to try and protect the Keystone XL deal groundwork laid by Trump and his administration.
Wary Alberta eyes fate of Keystone XL - From RBC
A Biden administration has pledged to re-enter the Paris climate agreement and take a more aggressive role in policies to curb greenhouse gas emissions. As part of his environmental plan, Biden has pledged to revoke permits for the U.S. portion of the long-delayed Keystone XL pipeline project. But the overall outlook for oil production looks a lot different than it did a few years ago, when President Trump approved the project. Canadian oil & gas investment has never recovered from the 2015 oil-price collapse, and was running 80% below 2014 levels as of Q2 2020. The Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion project (now owned by the federal government) and Enbridge’s Line 3 expansion are both moving ahead. Although all three pipelines are probably not needed in the near-term, further delays in building pipeline capacity would be yet another disappointment for Alberta – particularly given the provincial government’s significant financial stake in the Keystone XL. Biden has also signaled he will seek to re-enter the Iran nuclear deal, which could marginally lower the price of oil. But he’s likely to take a more hawkish regulatory approach to U.S. domestic oil & gas production, which at the margin could improve the relative attractiveness of investment in the Canadian energy sector.
The idea that something can be likely and not happen, or unlikely and still happen, is one of the world’s most important tricks.
But let me tell you about a common problem. I’m as guilty of it as anyone else.
It’s that most people understand probability, but few actually believe in it.
Most people get that certainties are rare, and the best you can do is make decisions where the odds are in your favor. They understand you can be smart and end up wrong, or dumb and end up right, because that’s how luck and risk work.
But almost no one actually uses probability in the real world, especially when judging others’ success.
Most of what people care about is, “Were you right or wrong?”
Probability is about nuance and gradation. But in the real world people pay attention to black and white.
If you said something will happen and it happens, you were right.
If you said it will happen and it doesn’t, you’re wrong.
That’s how people think, because it doesn’t take much effort to think about it?
🌊 Hottest Links We Read Last Week 🌊
Market definitions and tech monopolies. Does Amazon have 40% market share, or 10%? Does Apple have 15%, or 80%? Does Google worry more about Bing or Tiktok? It depends, and it's complicated, but this is a basic building block for all the coming antitrust cases. Link (Benedict Evans)
Ants climbing trees. By far the biggest tech story this week: China halted/postponed/kyboshed the IPO of Ant Financial, the spin-off of Alibaba's Alipay mobile payment giant, which was due to list this week raising $37bn at a valuation of $316bn. It appears that the main reason was a speech by Jack Ma that was insufficiently respectful of regulators. Pour encourager les autres. Link
Twitter and Trump. Once it was 'the free speech wing of the free-speech party', but Twitter hid half of Trump's posts behind 'misinformation' labels this week. As I wrote last week, we are having to work out what we think about this very quickly. Part of Trump's model was to bypass the conventional media's enforcement of norms by going direct, but now those norms are spreading to social platforms as well. Meanwhile, Parler, which is essentialy 'Twitter for people banned from Twitter', went to the top of the US App Store chart. Link
Google VPN? Google is launching a VPN service on Android, as part of a subscription service. This does help security (on shared wifi), but also raises a privacy issue, since now Google sees your usage (remember Facebook's Onavo?). Google promises it won't analyse your data, but it's not clear if this still gives visibility into overall traffic flows. Link
Apple Silicon. Apple has another product event Today (tuesday), almost certainly to launch the first Macs using its own custom-designed chips. As announced in the summer, Apple is moving from Intel to its own silicon on the same ARM architecture as iOS devices - a hugely impressive piece of engineering execution. Expect battery life and performance jumps, and perhaps new form factors and touch screens. Link
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