#74 - 2020 Recap, Bitcoin, and 2021 Predictions
In this week's episode of Reformed Millennials, we're doing a 2020 recap and 2021 predictions. If you’re a long time listener, you know we’ll be discussing the metaverse, semi-conductors, and the knock-on effects of eCommerce decentralization.
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👉 For specific investment questions or advice contact Joel @ Gold Investment Management.
Here are the closing prints:
Energy Is Surging
The energy sector surged today after the Saudis announced oil output cuts. One million barrels per day (BPD) will be cut in February and March.
Crude futures ticked above $50 for the first time since February. Remember when it went negative?? Lol
$XLE popped 4.5% and filled its gap from Dec. 21. Is this the fuel energy needed to turn a positive 2021? Time will tell…
🐣Dems win the Runoffs in Georgia🐥
All you need to know:
Chuck Schumer replaces Mitch McConnel as Senate Majority leader.
🚀Bitcoin to the Moon?🌍
Bitcoin is the first true religion of the 21st century. Sometimes people call Bitcoin a religion pejoratively, as a way to sneer at its disciples. Or they call it a cult. Or they just use "religion" to imply that the whole thing is irrational. But I mean it with no judgment one way or another. Just that it's literally a religion. There's plenty of evidence for it.
It has a prophet. Satoshi, who not only has never been identified but who has apparently departed the world.
Not only is there a prophet, but Satoshi was also apparently in it for the benefit of all mankind. There's no evidence that Satoshi ever sold a single coin.
Bitcoin's first block was called The Genesis Block.
Bitcoin has original saints and apostles. Early figures like Hal Finney, who spoke with Satoshi, are revered in the community for their forward vision and their role in establishing the faith. Finney was the recipient of the first Bitcoin transaction.
Bitcoin has its own Talmud-like texts. The early Bitcointalk.org message boards are still studied today, where the first users discussed the endeavor, and analyzed today in order to help guide the community.
Holidays. Every May 22, Bitcoiners remember a famous transaction, where someone spent 10,000 Bitcoin on two pizzas. Meanwhile, every four years, Bitcoiners celebrate the halving, when the pace of new Bitcoin issuance gets cut in half. There's other holidays too... yesterday as Proof Of Keys day, for example.
Dietary customs. Many of the most orthodox Bitcoiners adhere to a diet of strictly eating meat.
Schisms. Just like with any religion, there have been breakaway attempts, with disciples branching out onto their own, dividing the community, a la the creation of Bitcoin Cash in 2017.
Disputed claims to the crown. Some people have claimed to be Satoshi Nakamoto, engendering huge controversy and anger in the community.
Fury at apostasy. While Bitcoiners are resentful of people who aren't part of the faith (Nocoiners) they hold in particular contempt apostates who abandon ship as part of a ragequit.
Sayings and incantations. Just check out some Bitcoiners on Twitter, and it's basically a stream of repetitive phrases, meant to hammer home key ideas to the flock.
Prophets, apostles, holidays, dietary customs, sacred texts, schisms, sayings, and more. Bitcoin isn't like a religion. This is just what religion is.
🌊Best Links of The Week🌊
Here is a paper from Emily Strauss of Duke Law School, titled “Is Everything Securities Fraud?”
China v. Alibaba, continued - China is digging deeper on Alibaba, and Ant Financial, its payment affiliate (Alipay), floating all sorts of options including a breakup of some kind. As observed in previous issues of this newsletter, it's unclear to China analysts how much this is about things done by Alibaba (and hence with read-across for other big Chinese tech companies), how much it's about Jack Ma, and how much this is pour encourager les autres.
SolarWinds hackers viewed Microsoft source code - This story isn't going to go away. The (almost certainly Russian) hackers who breached a lot of big companies and government targets last year managed to get sight of some of Microsoft's source code. This probably doesn't create new security issues, since Microsoft's strategy has been to write code on the presumption that source can be viewed, but it still illustrates the scale of the breach, and we're still learning about more targets.
New York Times on Substack. Angle: the history professor making $1m
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