Kim Kardashian and Kylie Jenner Have Peaked and Canadian Housing In Free Fall
Career advice from Prof G
Everyone thinks that was a bear market bounce
Kim Kardashian and the Jenners have peaked
LinkedIn is the next Hinge Dating App
The time to buy a Rolex will be…
Disney Catches Netflix in subscribers
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We’re in a recession right now. But I think calling it a recession on the backs of record-breaking growth numbers feels a bit disingenuous. So without redefining the term.
We are in a recession. But we also had one in 2020.
This one is smaller than the last, and the next one that's likely to appear in 2023 will be smaller than this one as we pull ourselves out of this pandemic shock.
That's how pendulums find harmony.
A few weeks back we talked about the biotech index breaking above the 200-day moving average. That sector has stuck its landing and started to move higher.
Today it was the Small Cap Index doing the same. The S&P is right there and only the Nasdaq 100 has some more work to do.
Ryan Detrick, in the image attached, points out that there are some technicals flashing positive signs…
The fact that people are scoffing at the green shoots and that sentiment is still disdain for stocks, the FED, and anyone buying or investing could be another wall of worry that this market will climb...
The main indexes pulled back earlier last week to their rising 10-day moving average.
Then, July CPI readings came a bit below expectations and most stocks just took off.
This time, the biggest gainers didn’t come from biotech and software. Last week was all about energy and metals.
Lithium stocks ALB, SQM, LTHM, and PLL had a massive rally.
Coal, oil & gas names had one of their best weeks in a while.
The market reaction to earnings continues to be overwhelmingly positive this season. Semis, Micron (MU), and Nvidia (NVDA) guided down. Both gapped down only to completely recover by the end of the week.
Going up on bad news is bullish.
In the meantime, stocks that beat earnings estimates broke out on volume and followed through for the most part – TTD, SWAV, STAA, ARRY, GFS, QLYS, etc.
The small caps ETF – Russell 2k (IWM) went up 25% in the past couple of months and it is back above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages for the first time since November of 2021.
The large-cap S&P 500 is less than 1% from its 200-day moving average.
Bearish rally or not, capital is getting put to work, dips are getting bought, and stocks are breaking out and following through.
No one knows how long it is going to last.
The last time, I thought we had a bear market rally was April 2020 and the markets just kept going higher.
I don’t think it’ll happen again but I’ll keep an open mind.
My eyes are still on the US dollar and rates. It is nice to see that stocks can go up on bad news and the market is trying to digest higher inflation numbers and interest rates.
Arguably the greatest athlete ever will retire this year after the Open in New York. From record-setting tennis to investing in 16 unicorns. Serena is an inspiration.
MY FAVORITE QUOTES:
As a person
To me that’s kind of the essence of being Serena: expecting the best from myself and proving people wrong. There were so many matches I won because something made me angry or someone counted me out. That drove me. I’ve built a career on channeling anger and negativity and turning it into something good. My sister Venus once said that when someone out there says you can’t do something, it is because they can’t do it. But I did do it.
I wrote one of the very first checks for MasterClass. It’s one of 16 unicorns—companies valued at more than $1 billion—that Serena Ventures has funded, along with Tonal, Impossible Foods, Noom, and Esusu, to name a few. This year we raised $111 million of outside financing, from banks, private individuals, and family offices. Seventy-eight percent of our portfolio happens to be companies started by women and people of color, because that’s who we are.
Women in sport-
I’d like to think that thanks to opportunities afforded to me, women athletes feel that they can be themselves on the court. They can play with aggression and pump their fists. They can be strong yet beautiful. They can wear what they want and say what they want and kick butt and be proud of it all.
Insights into the Inflation Print
💸Reformed Millennials - Post of The Week
Canadian Real Estate is Getting Hammered
We all knew that when the Bank of Canada was going to start raising interest rates the prices of residential homes would come down, but I don't think buyers knew just how bad it was going to be.
AN EXCERPT FROM THE RBC MONTHLY REAL ESTATE REPORT:
Monthly Housing Market Update
The pandemic may not be over but the pandemic-era housing market boom certainly is. Since the Bank of Canada began hiking its policy rate in March, home resales have fallen 31% and (benchmark) prices almost 6% nationwide, including monthly declines of 5.3% and 1.7%, respectively, in July. Most of Ontario and British Columbia have seen even greater drops. And the bottom is likely many months away still as our central bank has more work to do—we expect a further 100 basis-point rate increase to 3.5% by the fall. With the balance of power having dramatically shifted in their favour, buyers will be in a position to continue extracting price concessions from sellers for some time to come.
Ontario and BC: from hot spots to… downturn epicentre
Formerly overheating markets in Ontario and parts of the BC Lower Mainland have been the epicentre of the downturn to date. Cambridge (-17%), Kitchener-Waterloo (-16%), Brantford (-14%), London (-14%) and Guelph (-10%) have experienced the biggest declines in the composite MLS Home Price Index since the February peak. In dollar terms, the loss in value is striking, varying from $95,000 (Guelph) to $166,000 (Cambridge). Prices are also under heavy pressure in the Greater Toronto Area where the composite MLS HPI in down 7% (or $89,000) in the past five months. The Fraser Valley is leading the correction in British Columbia with the composite benchmark price falling 5.6% (or $65,000) since March, slightly more than twice the decline in the Vancouver area.
🐦 Twitter Thread of The Week 🐦
Some of my favorites from this tweet thread:
Find your talents, then double down and become the best in the world at it. - Marc Cuban
Take your time and compound your capital. It usually takes a couple cycles of compounding for people to make it. - @tradermayne
Unless absolutely necessary, burning bridges is a losing action. - Sicarious_
Don't over consume alcohol, food, caffeine. - Aeyakovenko
🔮Best Links of The Week🔮
Please Don’t Pivot - Josh Brown
Instagram, TikTok and the 3 Trends - Ben Thompson
Flight of the Concord! - Associated Press