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October marks the end of a challenging three-month period for US and global equities, and we want to keep you informed about the current market conditions and potential opportunities. Here are some key highlights:
Market Volatility: Despite the S&P 500 showing resilience, the overall market has been under pressure. Small caps and international equities have experienced more significant losses, with the S&P 500’s YTD price return falling to 9.2 percent.
Geopolitical Risks: In addition to concerns over interest rates, the Israel-Gaza conflict has introduced a new risk factor. While oil prices have stabilized after a brief spike, uncertainty remains high.
Seeking Opportunities: With recent poor performance data, some investors are considering increasing equity exposure in November and December to benefit from the usual positive seasonality during these months. Call it the Santa Clause Rally.
Uncertainty in the Middle East: Predicting the impact of events in the Middle East on investments remains challenging. Historically, a more tradeable/investable low will show when/if the CBOE VIX Index reaches 28-36 and 10-year Treasury yields stabilize.
Sectors and Investment Strategies: Only a few sectors, including Utilities, Tech, Communications, and Consumer Staples, outperformed the S&P 500 in October. Value has outperformed Growth recently, but it’s crucial to understand the underlying dynamics. More below.
US Big Tech: Despite the recent market turbulence, US Big Tech companies have shown their strength in supporting the broader market. Their contribution to S&P 500 returns has been substantial.
Energy and Precious Metals: Oil prices have not sustained a high level due to Middle East tensions, which is surprising but potentially bullish for stocks. As Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 this year.
Interest Rates and Small Caps: Rising interest rates have hit the US small cap sector hard, affecting various industries, including Technology, Financials, and Health Care.
Global Tech Markets: Asian Big Tech companies have fared better than their European counterparts in the last three months, reflecting the ongoing market dynamics.
Economic Outlook: The Q3-2023 GDP growth showed a significant rebound, but alternative metrics and concerns about inflation suggest a more cautious approach.
In conclusion, the markets are navigating various challenges, including geopolitical uncertainties and interest rate fluctuations. We encourage you to stay informed and make well-informed investment decisions.
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Best Links of The Week🔮
The Canadian Carbon Tax - Trevor Tombe
The Land of Rising Profits - GMO
"The Treasury Department announced plans Wednesday to accelerate the size of its auctions as it looks to handle its heavy debt load and with financing costs rising. In a development getting close attention on Wall Street, the department detailed its refunding plans for future debt sales. The announcement comes with Treasury yields around their highest levels since 2007, a reflection of financial markets spooked over how much damage higher borrowing costs could exact. Most immediately, the Treasury will auction $112 billion in debt next week to refund $102.2 billion of notes set to mature Nov. 15, raising more than $9 billion in extra funds." - CNBC
"For almost 30 years now, Nissan.com hasn't been the place to custom order an Altima.Owned by small businessman Uzi Nissan since 1994, the website was set up to represent his various small businesses before the Nissan Motor Corporation took interest. It infamously tried to rip it from him in court, only to lose after prolonged and costly legal battle stretching over a decade. But since Uzi's death in 2020, control of his website has allegedly been stolen by a mysterious thief, forcing the the Nissan family to take the matter to court once again." - Full story here in The Drive
"DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach believes interest rates are about to trend lower as the economy deteriorates further and tips into a recession next year. “I do think rates are going to fall as we move into a recession in the first part of next year,” Gundlach said Wednesday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell"." - CNBC
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