Listen in podcast app and follow below for the podcast topic arc.
Podcast apologizes for poor trade predictions
Challenges facing Canadian Millennials and Gen Z
The opportunity presenting investors in Canada
How the internet broke and fixed music
The economics of the James Dolan Sphere
Recommendations and Links
We’re experiencing another volatile week in markets, as the hedge fund and bank bosses return from their summer slumber. The talk on the street continues to be “Higher for longer”. And this sentiment change has started to throw gas on the fire and reinvigorated the “hard landing” bear crowd.
One of my favorite follows from twitter (linked here and quoted below) had a great breakdown of the Hard or Hot Landing narrative. Below is his Hot or Hard landing argument.
“The ‘Hot Landing’ Thesis: The easy wins in inflation - repaired supply chains & declining shelter costs - are behind us.
Now these structural pressures remain:
Re-shoring from China to Mexico/Vietnam/E. Europe/India increases industry cost structure
Labor: UAW strikes and 20% wage hike demands are a symbol for wage pressure elsewhere
Energy & Food: YTD records (almost $100 oil)
Persistent Budget deficits
Stimulus from Chips ACT & IRA
I’m not saying we are going to relive the 1970s.
However, the path to 2% gets harder the closer you get.
And 2% is the Fed target - they are not settling for 2.5%.
That means ‘higher for longer’ rates and inflation.
The ‘AI bailout’ scenario is if an AI productivity boom shows up next year.
I’m hopeful on AI, but am not counting on that.”
Twitter links from the pod:
Podcast & YouTube Recommendations🎙
Bob Elliott talks fed funds and how they are done for now. He talks labor/wages, productivity and consumption habits.
To/dr - fed needs asset prices to come down so inflation can follow suit.
Mathew Ball takes to Plain English to Explain the rise and fall of Disney and what their path forward to success looks like.
Best Links of The Week🔮
Trevor tombe launches an Alberta Pension Plan simulator - here
"Netflix plans to raise the price of its ad-free service a few months after the continuing Hollywood actors strike ends, the latest in a series of recent price increases by the country’s largest streaming platforms. The streaming service is discussing raising prices in several markets globally, but will likely begin with the U.S. and Canada... Over the past year or so, the cost of major ad-free streaming services has gone up by about 25%, as entertainment companies look to bring their streaming platforms to profitability and lead price-conscious customers to switch to their cheaper and more-lucrative ad-supported plans." Source: WSJ
Spotify is doubling down on audiobooks: Paying subscribers of the music service will now have access to up to 15 hours of audiobook listening as part of their monthly subscription. - Fast Company
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s deputy chief economist says the private sector must be given the proper incentives to invest more in housing in order to address the need for 3.5 million additional units by 2030. - BNN Bloomberg
Canadian Economy set to get back on its feet in 2024 says Deloitte Canada Chief Economist - BNN Bloomberg
Canadian Oil exports to hit new heights in next few years - BNN Bloomberg
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